Italian Political Elites’ Changing Positions on European Monetary Integration, 1958–2022

Lucio Baccaro and Joshua Cova
 

An influential argument among scholars of European integration has emphasized the shift from a “permissive consensus” to a “constraining dissensus” (Hooghe and Marks 2009). The transition is evident in Italy – once a strong supporter of “more Europe” but now among the most eurocritical countries. While existing research has mostly focused on public opinion and party-based Euroscepticism, this project examines changing perceptions among political elites. The goal is to systematically reconstruct how Italian political elites’ views on the European Monetary Union have evolved over time and across parties. The study examines the scope of the initial “permissive consensus,” the timing and nature of emerging divisions, and how parties re-evaluated the pros and cons of European monetary integration. It further investigates support for the “vincolo esterno,” the external constraint imposed by European monetary integration. To address these questions, the project’s novel methodological approach leverages two key advancements: digitization of historical parliamentary records, and breakthroughs in natural language processing, particularly large language models, which allow inductive study of policymakers’ preferences.