The Migration Crisis Caused by the War in Ukraine: Short- and Long-Term Social and Economic Consequences for European Countries
The Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022 caused the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II. About one third of Ukrainians had to leave their homes and become internally displaced persons or refugees abroad. Such a large-scale crisis necessitates discussion of the challenges and prospects for the development of the phenomenon. This project aims to develop a framework for an analysis of short- and long-term social and economic consequences of migration caused by the war in Ukraine in recipient countries of the EU. The project systematizes these consequences – in scale, timing, and type – for the top host countries for Ukrainian refugees (e.g., Poland and Germany) and an origin country in a comparative analysis of data available from the major international organizations combined with country-level data. Based on the system dynamics modeling method, the project contributes to the question of how to assess the effects of migration caused by the war in Ukraine on macroeconomic indicators of the European host countries.